Rae says PM is hoping general election will be held before four March 17 byelections

THE HILL TIMES, Monday, January 7, 2008 
News section, page 17
"Rae says PM is hoping general election will be held before four March 17 byelections"

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's announcement last month to hold four byelections in three provinces in March is now being slammed by some critics who say the Prime Minister hopes a general election will happen before the byelections.

Ned Franks, a professor emeritus of political science at Queen's University, said Prime Minister Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) likely hoped that a general election would be called before the March 17 byelections in Ontario, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia when he made the decision last month.

"I think he set the first three byelections for places where he thought would be advantageous to his party and deferred these [four] in the hopes that there'd be a general election that would intervene, and in the meantime they wouldn't have to go through a byelection that would produce a stronger Liberal Party," Prof. Franks said from Kingston on Thursday, referring to the three Quebec byelections held in September where the Liberals were shut out, the NDP won one seat and the Conservatives won one seat. "He ran into a period where byelections simply had to be called."

The ridings of Toronto Centre and Willowdale in Ontario, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River in Saskatchewan, and Vancouver Quadra in British Columbia had been held by Liberal MPs since the 2006 federal election.

All four Liberal MPs resigned or retired in 2007, leaving their ridings vacant. Toronto Centre MP Bill Graham resigned on July 2, followed by his Willowdale counterpart Jim Peterson on July 12. Stephen Owen left his Vancouver Quadra riding on July 27 to become VP of external and community relations at UBC. Churchill River MP Gary Merasty officially resigned on Sept. 4 to work as a VP of Cameco Corp.

Mr. Harper had six months from the date of the resignations, or until Dec. 30, to set the date for the byelections, which are scheduled for March 17. He announced the byelections on Dec. 21.

Most speculate the Liberals will win the Ontario and B.C. ridings, but could lose the Saskatchewan riding to the Conservatives.

Liberal candidate Bob Rae is running in Toronto Centre. In a statement on his website, Mr. Rae criticized Mr. Harper's decision to wait until Dec. 21 to announce the byelections. "He's delayed calling byelections for the full six months, and put them off by another three," he wrote. "But there's no point complaining--the elections will happen when they happen, and people will make up their minds and make their decisions."

The Conservatives have also been criticized over their decision to drop their original Toronto Centre candidate, Mark Warner, after an internal party disagreement. According to media reports in November when the story broke, the party said Mr. Warner was disqualified because of complaints from the riding association. But Mr. Warner said the party dumped him because he wanted to play up urban and social issues in his campaign that were at odds with the national Conservative campaign strategy. Mr. Warner said the party disapproved of his public discussion of education, housing, and HIV/AIDS.

"Frankly, I felt there was a lot of micromanagement ... and I don't think it was legitimate," said Mr. Warner in a CBC News article.

Don Plett, the Conservative Party president, told The Toronto Star on Nov. 1 that the party's decision to oust Mr. Warner was a private matter but didn't argue with Mr. Warner's characterization of the dispute. "There are certain things that we expect all of our candidates to do in a national campaign. You're telling me Mr. Warner has admitted himself that he wasn't prepared to go along with that, then I think he's answered his own question."

David Docherty, associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University, said dropping Mr. Warner won't play well with progressive, urban voters. "Doing this to someone who clearly was on the more progressive end of the party, in terms of his interest in social policy, I think it speaks to a couple things," Prof. Docherty said in an interview with The Hill Times last week. "The Conservative Party under Stephen Harper is very different from both the Progressive Conservative Party and the old Reform Party, where people were encouraged to represent the views of their constituents. So what kind of party is this? That's the message that's probably out in Toronto Centre right now, one that Bob Rae can quite easily exploit."

The new Conservative Party candidate in Toronto Centre is Don Meredith, a Pentecostal minister who co-founded and chairs the GTA Faith Alliance, an organization that works to wipe out youth violence in Toronto and improve relations between the black community and police. In an interview with The Hill Times on Thursday, Mr. Meredith said it was a good time for Mr. Harper to announce the byelections because it will allow the candidates enough time to prepare their campaigns.

"I think it's just about getting everybody prepared for the eventuality that there is a full-blown election," Mr. Meredith said. "We're happy that he's called it, it gets us in a mode where we can go out and campaign, and may the best individual win."

Mr. Meredith said the timing of the byelections depends in part on the actions of the opposition parties in the House when Parliament resumes later in January. But, he added, he doubts a general election will be called before March 17.

"I don't think Canadians, in general, have an appetite for another election just a year-and-a-half or two years" after the last federal election, he said. "Obviously the Conservative Party is in a minority position and they would like to obtain a full majority so that all the laws and bills that they're putting forward can be put through the House without any hindrances. However, I think they also have to weigh the appetite of Canadians."

Opponents of Mr. Meredith and Mr. Rae in Toronto Centre include NDP candidate El-Farouk Khaki, a human rights activist and immigration lawyer, and Green Party candidate Chris Tindal, an interactive media producer who also ran in 2006. He lost to Liberal Bill Graham, who won 52 per cent of the vote.

In the GTA riding of Willowdale, the Liberal candidate is Martha Hall Findlay, a lawyer and a high-profile 2006 federal leadership candidate. She replaces Jim Peterson, who won the riding in 2006 with 55.3 per cent of the vote. Representing the Conservatives is Maureen Harquail, also a lawyer and a former federal environmental prosecutor. Rini Ghosh, a University of Toronto student leader, will run for the NDP, and Lou Carcasole, an engineer and entrepreneur, will run for the Greens.

In Vancouver Quadra, former B.C. legislative cabinet minister Joyce Murray will run for the Liberals and UBC business lecturer Deborah Meredith will run for the Conservatives. The NDP candidate is Rebecca Coad, a community activist. The Greens will be represented by Daniel Grice, a tech consultant and long-time supporter. The previous Liberal MP, Stephen Owen, won 48.8 per cent of that riding.

In Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, Rob Clarke, an RCMP sergeant and community volunteer, will run for the Conservatives. Joan Beatty, a former Saskatchewan NDP cabinet minister and aboriginal activist, will run for the Liberals, and the NDP and Greens have yet to confirm their candidates. The riding was formerly held by Liberal Gary Merasty, who won the riding for the first time in 2006 with 41.5 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives previously held the riding.